diff --git a/docs/connection-gate-findings.md b/docs/connection-gate-findings.md
index 8ebb55b..01bc5d9 100644
--- a/docs/connection-gate-findings.md
+++ b/docs/connection-gate-findings.md
@@ -896,3 +896,39 @@ does the manager hold at +0x778, and (c) if REST is never called, which online-l
 FIFA is parked in (log the state object's vtable). That directly reveals what instantiates
 `+0x778`. This replaces "months-long unknown" with a single targeted probe against a named
 object. Still a cost/priority call against [[project_direction_pivot]] (FLE career primary).
+
+---
+
+## DYNAMIC PROBE RESULT — hypothesis overturned: connect flow is never triggered (2026-07-02, run 3)
+
+Built a probe (openfut-hook `probe` feature) with entry detours on the game-side connect
+functions + a guarded sampler that reads the session-context chain directly. Ran it live at
+"connecting to EA Servers". **Deploy note:** FIFA is launched via **FLE**, which injects
+`openfut_hook.dll` from the FLE dir — NOT the game-dir `version.dll`; earlier redeploys to
+version.dll were never loaded (see [[reference_hook_deploy_path]]).
+
+**Results (decisive):**
+- Sampler: `X=[0x14acd02c0]` (OriginSDK singleton), `M=[X+0x360]`, `ctx=[M+0x778]` →
+  **`ctx = 0xba8315a0`, non-null and stable** the entire time.
+- `nucleusConnectREST` enter=**0**, `nucleusConnectTrusted` enter=**0**,
+  `connectState.tick` (+0x507d660) enter=**0**.
+- Bridge LSX log: FIFA does its full bootstrap (GetConfig, GetProfile, GetGameInfo,
+  GetSetting, GetInternetConnectedState, IsProgressiveInstallationAvailable, SetPresence,
+  SetDownloaderUtilization) then **goes silent** — only receiving our 2 s event pushes. Over
+  the whole session it **never** sends QueryEntitlements, RequestLicense, or GetAuthCode.
+
+**Conclusion — the dig-2 static hypothesis was WRONG.** The Nucleus session context `[M+0x778]`
+is NOT null; it exists. The connect functions would pass their null-check — but they are
+**never called**. The blocker is not a missing object; it is that FIFA's EASFC/Nucleus
+**online-connect flow is never triggered at all**. FIFA completes LSX bootstrap, parks at
+"connecting", and never advances to the connect state (whose objects are created at init —
+loop @ +0x4f47920 building the array [ctrl+0x780], count [ctrl+0x298] — but never driven).
+
+**This is exactly why we probe:** the static call-graph looked like a null-check gate; the live
+client showed the gate is upstream — a *trigger*, not a precondition. Event-push (OnlineStatus/
+Login) parses fine and even sets FIFA's stored online bool (via the no-op listener's map store),
+but does not kick the online controller into starting the connect. **Next question: what
+transition starts the EASFC connect** (idle connect-state → nucleusConnectREST). Candidates to
+probe next: the connect-state's earlier vtable steps (+0xa8/+0xb0 = +0x507cd60/+0x507cf90) to
+see if the state is entered-but-stalls vs never-entered, and the online-controller update that
+would advance it. Still a cost/priority call vs [[project_direction_pivot]].